The numbers reported in news stories about job growth or losses are derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, a cooperative effort between the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and state agencies such as North Carolina’s Department of Commerce Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD). The CES is considered the standard for reporting changes in employment levels across the United States.
The CES, also referred to as the “payroll” or “establishment” survey, gathers data from nearly all government agencies and a sample of businesses. This information is used to estimate monthly figures on workers, hours worked, and earnings at national, state, and Metropolitan Statistical Area levels for nonfarm employment. These estimates are released each month for the previous month and provide important data that help describe economic conditions in the country.
According to officials, “BLS funds and administers the CES program, conducts the monthly survey, and then constructs and publishes monthly employment estimates. The state’s role is to review these estimates, give feedback on estimates, and provide contextual information regarding local events that may impact estimates. This collaborative approach provides a comprehensive view of employment trends across different regions and sectors both within states and nationally.”
Initial CES data released each month are based on preliminary survey responses because businesses have limited time to report their information before publication. BLS continues collecting responses after this initial release; as more data comes in from late respondents, revisions are made to improve accuracy. National statistics typically undergo two months of revision following their preliminary release; state and area-level statistics are revised for one month.
Annually, CES estimates go through a benchmarking process where they are adjusted using administrative tax data. This ensures alignment with actual counts of employment even though this additional data is less timely but more complete.
Officials emphasize that employer participation in the CES survey is crucial: “To maintain accuracy and reliability of these critical economic indicators, it is crucial for employers to complete the survey promptly and accurately. Employer participation in the CES survey ensures that the employment data provides the most reliable snapshot of the economy, supporting informed decision-making in both public and private sectors.”
Recent reports for North Carolina and national figures can be found on both the BLS website (https://www.bls.gov/ces/) as well as LEAD’s Demand Driven Data Delivery (D4) website (https://d4.nccommerce.com/LausSelection.aspx), which allows users to access state- or area-level employment data by industry or region.
