In 2023 and 2024, the United States saw a significant rise in immigration, leading to increased population, labor force, and employment growth. However, new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show that between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, population growth slowed due to a notable decline in immigration. If this trend continues, net international migration could fall to levels not seen for decades.
North Carolina’s population growth comes from three sources: natural change (births minus deaths), domestic migration (movement from other states), and international migration (movement from other countries). Historically, most of North Carolina’s population increase has come from people moving in from other states. This pattern continued according to the latest data for 2025.
A shift occurred starting in 2022 when North Carolina experienced a marked increase in international migration. The peak was reached in 2024 with nearly 83,000 more people arriving from abroad than leaving. Although net international migration dropped to 47,000 between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025, it remained higher than pre-pandemic levels.
The influx of immigrants has also affected North Carolina’s labor market by expanding its labor force. The participation rate among foreign-born individuals was at a low of 68% in 2021 but rose each year after that. By 2025 it had reached 72%, meaning almost three out of every four working-age immigrants were employed or looking for work.
Foreign-born labor force participation continued to be significantly higher than native-born rates—72% compared with an average of about 59% among native-born workers—a gap attributed largely to age differences; immigrants are more likely to be within prime working years (25-54).
Employment data based on the Current Population Survey (CPS) indicate that immigration drove most of North Carolina’s employment gains since 2021. Over four years through mid-2025, foreign-born workers increased by about 188,000 while native-born workers grew by roughly180,000. In particular during2013 all net job growth came from foreign-born workers as employers faced hiring challenges due partlyto retirements and demographic changes.
Immigrants remain a significant part of several sectors’ workforce including construction (where they account for37%of jobs), agriculture(estimated at least29%),and leisure/hospitality(where around20%areforeign-born). Agriculture figures may underestimate immigrant presence because H-2A visa holders are not counted by CPS data.
Looking ahead,the impactof slowing immigrationon North Carolina’slabormarketis uncertain.Multiple factors play roles,suchas broader economicforces,population aging,and ongoing shiftsin employer demand.LEAD notes,”Even if job growthin our state slows significantly or turns negative,it is not clearthat declining immigration would bethe main culprit.We are enteringthe fifth consecutive yearof a labormarket slowdown with hiring rates falling totheir lowest pointin overa decadeand jobseekers facing difficultjob-finding conditions.”
LEAD adds,”The effects of immigration on the labor market can take time to show up.Ina typicalyear,many newly arrived immigrants do not enter the labor force immediately due to waiting periodsfor work authorizationand other factors.As a result ,immigrants who arrivedin2022 ,2023,and2024arestill gradually ramping uptheir labor force participationin2025and beyond.This means the rapid increaseininmigrationfromafewyears agomaycontinuetoboostlaborsupplyforsometime ,evenasnew inflowsslow.”
They further note long-term risks:”Evenif we don’t seean immediateimpactonthelabormarketthisyear,a prolonged slowdownininmigrationwouldcarrylong-termconsequences.TheU.S.populationisaging,andbirthrateshavebeendecliningfordecades.Demographic projections suggestthatbeginningin2030 ,annualdeathsmayexceedannualbirthsnationwide ,meaningnetimmigrationwouldbecometheprimarysourceofpopulationgrowth.Undersuchscenarios ,slowerimmigrationwouldaffectlong-termworkforceandeconomicgrowth.”
There have been concerns regarding CPS estimates of foreign-born populations because survey response rates among immigrants have declined in recent years. More information on this issue is available here: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-biden-administrations-challenges-in-tracking-the-size-of-the-u-s-population/.
Additionally,due tothefederalgovernmentshutdown,CPSdatawerenotavailableforOctober2025.Toovercome this,growth calculations used averaged year-over-year percentage changes across months before and after October [details available above].
Recent national analyses indicate that newer immigrant cohorts may join the workforce faster than previous groups.Furthermore,increased applications for work permits between January and April suggest rising interest among recent arrivals.Read more here: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/us-work-permit-backlog-reductions-benefits-workers-employers.
LEAD will continue monitoring how these demographic changes affect North Carolina’s economy.
