Upon completing a recent analysis of housing values in North Carolina, it was found that inflation-adjusted median housing values have risen in 77% of the state’s counties since 2014. This prompted an investigation into whether rental costs have followed a similar trend. The best data for this purpose is the median rent, which includes rent and utility costs, sourced from the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS). Median rent indicates that half of all renters pay more while the other half pay less.
To understand statewide trends, ACS 1-year estimates were reviewed. It was discovered that inflation-adjusted median rent estimates increased each year from 2014 to 2023, representing a rise of over 20% during this period. However, ACS did not release a 1-year estimate for 2020, so the BLS’s CPI-U was used to adjust estimates to 2023 values.
While these annual estimates provide insight at the state level, they are not available for all 100 counties in North Carolina. Therefore, the analysis turned to 5-year estimates to assess changes in all counties’ median rents.
The analysis revealed that when adjusted for inflation, 83 counties experienced an increase in median rent between the 2018 and 2023 periods. No counties saw a decrease, and in 17 counties, the median rent remained steady.
These counties with steady rents include Alleghany, Clay, Martin; Avery, Currituck, Northampton; Bladen, Gates, Person; Camden, Graham, Tyrrell; Cherokee, Macon, Washington; Chowan and Madison. They are distributed throughout rural areas of the state with smaller populations. Gates County is an exception as it is located within a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA).
The findings indicate that North Carolina’s rental market exhibits varied economic conditions. While median rent has outpaced inflation statewide by more than 20% from 2014 to 2023, growth is not uniform across all counties.
Counties experiencing increases are mostly metropolitan or suburban areas. In contrast, those with stable rents are rural with smaller populations and generally outside major MSAs except for Gates County.
Population decline does not explain steady rents in these rural areas as nearly half gained population between 2014 and 2023. Other factors may be influencing these trends.
The analysis is limited by using 5-year average data which might understate recent growth in median rent. Statewide data shows accelerated rent increases post-2021. It remains uncertain if these “steady rent” counties will maintain their stability or align with broader state trends as market changes unfold.
