North Raleigh Today

The Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD) has published the 2032 Regional Long Term Industry Projections for North Carolina. It highlights the addition of over 500,000 jobs to the state's economy between 2022 and 2032, which is a 10% increase. However, there are significant regional variations in these trends across North Carolina.

LEAD has created employment projections for 16 distinct regions within the state. These areas were initially drawn from North Carolina's eight Prosperity Zones and have been further refined into smaller regions or Sub-Prosperity Zones (Sub-PZs) to better capture local labor market dynamics. Of note, six of the eight Prosperity Zones are divided into two, while Charlotte remains a single unit, and the Southeast Prosperity Zone is split into three sub-regions: Goldsboro-Kinston, Jacksonville-New Bern, and Wilmington.

Every region is forecasted to experience job growth, but the magnitude differs. For example, Rocky Mount-Wilson is expected to experience modest growth, while Raleigh-Durham anticipates significant gains.

Table 1 provides a comprehensive overview of employment growth, though specific figures are not included here. The primary metropolitan areas such as Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, and Wilmington are predicted to surpass the state's overall growth rate, with Asheville just shy of it. The projections assume complete recovery from Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina, including Asheville, allowing for a return to pre-storm growth trajectories by 2032.

Job increases will be seen in both the Service-providing and Goods-producing sectors, with service industries generally driving more growth. However, Elizabeth City, Goldsboro-Kinston, Greenville, and Rocky Mount-Wilson may see greater expansion in Goods-producing sectors.

A focus on industry specifics shows that Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, along with Accommodation and Food Services, are projected to lead in several regions. Professional Services is expected to grow due to industries like Computer Systems Design in Charlotte, Greenville, and Raleigh-Durham, and Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting in Jacksonville-New Bern and Pinehurst-Rockingham. Growth in Accommodation and Food Services is largely attributed to gains in Food Services and Drinking Places.

Although not leading in overall projections, Real Estate and Health Care, and Social Assistance will see considerable growth, placing them among the top five sectors in more than half of the regions.

These employment forecasts are crucial for strategic planning. They are intended to assist workforce boards, economic developers, career counselors, job seekers, and education and training providers in aligning with future labor market needs. Stakeholders can utilize these projections to identify opportunities and challenges in North Carolina’s economic landscape.

Further details can be accessed via LEAD’s employment projections data tables or the Industry Projections dashboard.